Week 1.7

Using the breakdown approach I will research the GDP, GNP, inflation rate and retail sales in order to be able to give an accurate estimation of the market potential and the sales potential of Toblerone.

As seen in the picture above, the GDP of Netherlands has been through different growth rates over the years, but it has maintained nevertheless a growth with a few exception. (economics).

Above is presented a graph that shows the GNP of Netherlands across several years and has maintained a big enough growth.

In the graph above is presented the inflation rate in Netherlands which has had an unstable growth during the last years. It is predicted that in the future years it will go to a negative rate. However, in the present, Netherlands is doing much better than the several years in which they managed to keep the inflation stable but still quite high.

Finally, in the graph above can be observed the retail sales in Netherlands which are quite high except some months of the year.

Based on the data gathered, an estimation regarding Market potential and the sales potential can be done. Judging by the graphs, Netherlands has a healthy economy from which Toblerone can further profit off this thing. Sales can grow because of the healthy economy and also because of the present growth in sales in Netherlands.

Mondelez should develop a marketing plan for Toblerone because first of all, it helps them to track the milestones and the development in the Dutch market. Second of all, it will help them to define the customer target and finally, a market plan helps Toblerone to focus on what is important. For example, Toblerone may focus on trying to improve the appeal towards the younger customer group rather than all of them since the older customers are already accustom to the product.

If I were asked to make a forecast for the future years, I would choose the quantitative forecasting. The main advantage of this technique is the ability to predict changes in sales patterns and customer behavior. Another advantage of this technique is the flexibility since it allows the business to use non-numerical data sources. This is very useful when there is an ambiguity in data. Two major disadvantages that can occur using this technique are anchoring events and selective perception. (small business)

Bibliography

economics, T. (n.d.). Trade Economics. Retrieved from www.tradingeconomics.com: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/netherlands/gdp-growth

small business. (n.d.). Smallbusiness.chron.com. Retrieved from http://smallbusiness.chron.com/advantages-qualitative-forecasting-37020.html

Week 1.6      Marketing in international markets and globalization

Toblerone is an international product which managed to be exported by 1963 in 101 countries. Now, Toblerone is sold in 122 countries all over the world( Saudi Arabia, Romania, Netherlands, Australia, etc), mainly in airport’s duty-free shops. In duty-free shops, Toblerone holds a market share of 25% since the brand is always associated with trips. Also, a 2016 study made America by InfoScout shows that Toblerone is purchased by 46% of the people who are pantry stocking. The same article shows that Asians are more willing to buy the chocolate bar than the other races. (Infoscout, 2016). Another report shows that in mainland Switzerland, Toblerone holds a market share of 40% of the total chocolate bars sold. This might be deducted because of the national awareness of the brand. (Shock, 2008) . Apart from that, Toblerone also accounts for 40% of the Swiss chocolate exports out of 96% chocolate bars produced for export. (Amos)

Regarding the recent international turmoil such as the Ukraine Crisis or Isis have not made an impact yet on Toblerone, or Mondelez International. Since Toblerone is a product that is almost exclusively produced in Switzerland, Toblerone is relying mainly on exporting. Given the fact that a series of political issues have happened across the world, the company did not suffer from any of it. A research was made in this way and no reports that show a decrease in sales or market share has been found. Because of the lack of reports made by a company in this matter and no drop in sales in those countries, it is safe to judge that the recent international turmoil did not influence in any way the company.

Toblerone has had some problems in the past regarding different aspects. First, Toblerone was accused by Boycott of Cadbury over its tax avoidance. Since it was taken by Mondelez five years ago, Toblerone has not paid any UK corporation tax.  This is not due to a lack of money since last year; the company had a profit of 96.5 pounds. This caused a drop in the image of Toblerone as well as Mondelez who tried to do out of Toblerone, a tax evading company.

Secondly, the company was badly criticized for its supply chain management. In 2012, the company has had a series of incidents. The company did not respect the code of conduct which discussed a set of 10 rules. Rule number 3 refers to Treating People Fairly, but the company was accused of forced labor, child labor and discrimination. This happened mainly on the cocoa fields. Information regarding working weeks and wages were vague and not consistent along the reports. These were not consistent with the International Labor Organization’s core conventions which included 48 hours per week +12 hours overtime.  As it can be presumed, the company has severely suffered despite its efforts to recover.

Finally, in June 2015, Ethical Consumer has reported that Mondelez has sold a large range of products containing dairy that were not certified as organic. All these problems stated above has affected Mondelez’s image and it made the company change its policies and made bigger efforts in order to be able to recover from the drought. (consumer, 2015)

Bibliography

Amos, S. (n.d.). Champions of Design: Toblerone. Retrieved from www.campaign.co.uk: http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/1141350/champions-design-toblerone#

consumer, e. (2015, June). Ethical Consumer Toblerone. Retrieved from http://www.ethicalconsumer.org/scoredetails.aspx?ProductId=58027

Infoscout. (2016). InfoScout-Toblerone. Retrieved from http://infoscout.co/brand/toblerone/?utm_expid=75303912-6.htwCYLNcRc6Lien8_V3bYg.0&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.nl%2F

Shock, D. (2008, March 23). 8 facts about Toblerone Chocolate. Retrieved from www.shockmd.com: http://www.shockmd.com/2008/03/23/8-facts-about-toblerone-chocolate/

1.5 Macro Environment

Because of the constant wish for expansion, Mondelez operates in over 80 countries worldwide and in certain emerging markets, they are exposed to political, economic and regulatory risks. First, some countries have a greater vulnerability to infrastructure, such as China. Or maybe there are economic problems or greater political problems.

Secondly, in the already developed markets, a set of laws might that prohibit companies and their employees from making improper payments to government officials such as FCPA or the U.K. Bribery Act. Failure to do so might result in civil and criminal penalties that can affect their reputation and financial condition. (International, 2016)

In an interview with CNBC, The Mondelez International CEO, Irene Rosenfeld, has talked about the external Macro Environment challenges that the company is facing. The main topic who was brought was about the economical part of the macro environment.  Currencies and input costs have been brought up by being volatile. The main reason for the statement is that Mondelez is doing business with one of the largest Cocoa distributors and Cocoa is a volatile input nowadays. A combination of fluctuating currencies and input costs have put pressure on Mondelez’s portfolio to take some aggressive pricing action in order to be able to cover their costs( general costs, supply chain costs, investments in Franchises). (Imbert, 2015) 
Click the link bellow if you want to see the full interview with the CEO Irene Rosenfeld.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000355439

Regarding the consumption of Toblerone, there was not reported any differences in the buying behavior of any social, cultural or religious differences in Netherlands.

Bibliography                                 

Imbert, F. (2015, February 18). CNBC. Retrieved from www.cnbc.com: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/02/18/macro-environment-challenging-for-mondelez-ceo-irene-rosendeld.html

International, M. (2016, February 19). Mondelez International. Retrieved from www.mondelezinternational.com: http://ir.mondelezinternational.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1193125-16-469394&CIK=1103982